These Rankings are based on scores, yardage, and turnovers. From there, the teams are ranked by the number of points above average (Power Rating). Based on the strength of schedule, each team's predicted record is also posted.
Week 16 notes: After this past week's games, the top 4 in the power rankings have shuffled. While the top 2 in each conference are the same teams, the order has changed. However, the projected Super Bowl and conference matchups the same with San Francisco versus Miami in the Super Bowl, and Dallas (NFC) / Baltimore (AFC) being the conference runner ups. However, I ewxpect that the winner of Baltimore v. Miami next week will be the AFC favorite going into the playoffs. If we rank teams on how they're doing versus their power rankings, the Bears are the biggest underachievers, followede by the Saints, then the Panthers. The Eagles are the biggest overachievers, followed by the Jaguars, then a tie between the Seahawks and Broncos.
For this week, I added the win probabilities for weeks 17 and 18, so you can be more informed of what a team's actual record may be. By adding these up, this is how the predicted W-L was calculated. This late in the season, one can get an idea about a team's record looking directly at the probabilites, though.
If you see clear calculation errors, please message me on Mastodon (@nobody1231234@mastodon.social). Enjoy!
| Team | Curr W | Curr L | Curr T | Pred W | Pred L | Pred T | Power Rating | Record Rank | Power Rank | Combo Rank | Week 17 Win Prob | Week 18 Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 4 | 0 | 12.90 | 4.10 | 0 | 12.98 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12 | 3 | 0 | 13.40 | 3.60 | 0 | 12.11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.94 |
| Miami Dolphins | 11 | 4 | 0 | 12.33 | 4.67 | 0 | 13.09 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.79 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 5 | 0 | 11.69 | 5.31 | 0 | 10.37 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| Detroit Lions | 11 | 4 | 0 | 12.11 | 4.89 | 0 | 6.12 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.81 |
| Cleveland Browns | 10 | 5 | 0 | 11.73 | 5.27 | 0 | 4.59 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0.92 | 0.81 |
| Buffalo Bills | 9 | 6 | 0 | 10.14 | 6.86 | 0 | 6.53 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 0.93 | 0.21 |
| Houston Texans | 8 | 7 | 0 | 9.63 | 7.37 | 0 | 4.37 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0.91 | 0.72 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 6 | 0 | 10.51 | 6.49 | 0 | 2.36 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 4 | 0 | 12.46 | 4.54 | 0 | -1.36 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 7 | 0 | 9.10 | 7.90 | 0 | 0.46 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 0.37 | 0.73 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8 | 7 | 0 | 8.96 | 8.04 | 0 | 2.31 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 0.86 | 0.10 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7 | 8 | 0 | 8.27 | 8.73 | 0 | 3.14 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 7 | 0 | 9.06 | 7.94 | 0 | -0.40 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 0.78 | 0.28 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 8 | 0 | 7.88 | 9.12 | 0 | 0.23 | 20 | 13 | 15 | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | 7 | 0 | 8.63 | 8.37 | 0 | -1.03 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 0.58 | 0.06 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8 | 7 | 0 | 9.09 | 7.91 | 0 | -2.66 | 13 | 20 | 15 | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8 | 7 | 0 | 9.23 | 7.77 | 0 | -3.28 | 11 | 22 | 15 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| Chicago Bears | 6 | 9 | 0 | 7.07 | 9.93 | 0 | -0.22 | 24 | 14 | 19 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 8 | 0 | 7.75 | 9.25 | 0 | -1.02 | 22 | 16 | 19 | 0.56 | 0.19 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 7 | 0 | 8.46 | 8.54 | 0 | -2.67 | 17 | 21 | 19 | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 8 | 0 | 7.85 | 9.15 | 0 | -2.19 | 21 | 19 | 22 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | 8 | 0 | 7.91 | 9.09 | 0 | -6.19 | 19 | 26 | 23 | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 10 | 0 | 5.83 | 11.17 | 0 | -3.94 | 26 | 23 | 24 | 0.61 | 0.22 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 8 | 0 | 7.70 | 9.30 | 0 | -6.63 | 23 | 28 | 25 | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| New England Patriots | 4 | 11 | 0 | 4.62 | 12.38 | 0 | -5.68 | 29 | 25 | 26 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| New York Jets | 6 | 9 | 0 | 6.53 | 10.47 | 0 | -6.78 | 25 | 30 | 27 | 0.08 | 0.45 |
| Carolina Panthers | 2 | 13 | 0 | 2.72 | 14.28 | 0 | -4.49 | 32 | 24 | 28 | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| New York Giants | 5 | 10 | 0 | 5.40 | 11.60 | 0 | -6.66 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 12 | 0 | 3.61 | 13.39 | 0 | -6.24 | 31 | 27 | 30 | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5 | 10 | 0 | 5.41 | 11.59 | 0 | -6.93 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Washington Commanders | 4 | 11 | 0 | 4.01 | 12.99 | 0 | -10.28 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Credits: Pro Football Reference for the schedules.
Plain Text Sports for the scores to create this chart.
Tableizer to create the code for the table.