These Rankings are based on scores, yardage, and turnovers. From there, the teams are ranked by the number of points above average (Power Rating). Based on the strength of schedule, each team's predicted record is also posted.
Week 17 notes: After this past week's games, the predicted Super Bowl matchup is between the 49ers and Ravens, with the 49ers edging the Ravens. The worst team in the power rankings is the Commanders. A surprising thing is that Chicago is predicted to be good enough to beat Green Bay, which will knock them out of the playoffs. For the Steelers fans, the predictions are base don the overall season, so the Ravens are predicted to win, even if the Ravens have nothing to play for regarding playoff seeding.
For this week, I added the win probabilities for this week, so you can be more informed of what a team's actual record may be. This week's predicted W-L is assuming a win if the win probability is over 0.50 or a loss if below 0.50. I've also posted the likely conference rank and playoff predictions based on this model. Next week, I'll update the predictions and add my own personal predictions for the playoffs.
If you see clear calculation errors, please message me on Mastodon (@nobody1231234@mastodon.social). Enjoy!
| Team | Curr W | Curr L | Curr T | Pred W | Pred L | Pred T | Week 18 Win Prob | Power Rating | Power Rank | Pred Conf Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 12 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0.93 | 13.26 | 1 | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0.93 | 12.10 | 2 | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 11 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0.65 | 10.01 | 3 | 2 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 11 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0.99 | 8.88 | 4 | 2 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0.35 | 6.83 | 5 | 6 |
| Detroit Lions | 11 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0.85 | 5.58 | 6 | 3 |
| Houston Texans | 9 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0.75 | 4.97 | 7 | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0.77 | 4.08 | 8 | 8 |
| Cleveland Browns | 11 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0.79 | 4.04 | 9 | 5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0.78 | 2.34 | 10 | 3 |
| Chicago Bears | 7 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0.60 | 2.12 | 11 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0.07 | 1.25 | 12 | 6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 13 | 9 |
| Green Bay Packers | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.02 | 14 | 10 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0.25 | -0.47 | 15 | 8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0.71 | -0.94 | 16 | 4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0.76 | -1.33 | 17 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0.23 | -2.11 | 18 | 12 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0.63 | -2.23 | 19 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0.21 | -2.61 | 20 | 11 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0.15 | -2.83 | 21 | 11 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0.55 | -3.32 | 22 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0.22 | -3.92 | 23 | 14 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0.45 | -4.44 | 24 | 15 |
| Denver Broncos | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0.53 | -4.97 | 25 | 10 |
| New York Giants | 5 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0.37 | -5.07 | 26 | 13 |
| Carolina Panthers | 2 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0.29 | -5.48 | 27 | 16 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0.47 | -5.69 | 28 | 12 |
| New York Jets | 6 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0.51 | -5.96 | 29 | 13 |
| New England Patriots | 4 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0.49 | -6.08 | 30 | 16 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0.24 | -7.22 | 31 | 15 |
| Washington Commanders | 4 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0.01 | -10.89 | 32 | 14 |
| Playoff Predictions: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild Card Round | |||
| AFC | |||
| (1) Baltimore Ravens | on bye | ||
| (2) Miami Dolphins | def | (7) Houston Texans | by 5 |
| (5) Cleveland Browns | def | (4) Jacksonville Jaguars | by 5 |
| (6) Buffalo Bills | def | (3) Kansas City Chiefs | by 4 |
| NFC | |||
| (1) San Francisco 49ers | on bye | ||
| (2) Dallas Cowboys | def | (7) Seattle Seahawks | by 12 |
| (3) Detroit Lions | def | (6) Los Angeles Rams | by 4 |
| (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | def | (5) Philadelphia Eagles | by 1 |
| Divisional Round | |||
| AFC | |||
| (1) Baltimore Ravens | def | (6) Buffalo Bills | by 5 |
| (2) Miami Dolphins | def | (5) Cleveland Browns | by 6 |
| NFC | |||
| (1) San Francisco 49ers | def | (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | by 14 |
| (2) Dallas Cowboys | def | (3) Detroit Lions | by 3 |
| Conference Championships | |||
| (1) Baltimore Ravens | def | (2) Miami Dolphins | by 2 |
| (1) San Francisco 49ers | def | (2) Dallas Cowboys | by 4 |
| Super Bowl | |||
| (1) San Francisco 49ers | def | (1) Baltimore Ravens | by 1 |
Credits: Pro Football Reference for the schedules.
Plain Text Sports for the scores to create this chart.
Tableizer to create the code for the table.