This is an update on the results of my and my power ranking model's playoff predictions. For the divisional round, my personal picks did well straight up, being 3-1. Because one of my picks matched the spread and the model had the Cowboys defeating the Lions, I did not count those matches against the spread. Comparing both the model and my personal picks to the Vegas favorites, both are a half game behind the favorites against the spread for the entire playoffs. Straight up, all three (favorites, model, and personal predictions) are 6-4. As I mentioned before, I am not changing any teams that end up being knocked out. Thus, I will only consider it a win if the winner advances. This means a few results are already automatic losses. This week, there isn't any oddities in comparison to the spread and teams. The source for odds is Caesar's, since it seems a lot of media uses those odds.
Notes for the table below: ATS on the table below means "against the spread". For Vegas record and against the spread, I will be considering it a win if the favorite wins or clears the spread.
* = A team is playing a different opponent than predicted. This result will be considered a win if the winner of the matchup advances.
Team = The team was knocked out in a prior round. This result will be considered a win if the winner of the matchup advances.
| Model Predictions: | Personal Predictions: | Vegas: | Actual: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild Card: | Wild Card: | Wild Card: | Wild Card: |
| (2) Bills def (7) Steelers by 6 | (2) Bills def (7) Steelers by 7 | (2) Bills def (7) Steelers by 10 | (2) Bills def (7) Steelers by 14 |
| (2) Cowboys def (7) Packers by 9 | (2) Cowboys def (7) Packers by 10 | (2) Cowboys def (7) Packers by 7.5 | (7) Packers def (2) Cowboys by 16 |
| (6) Dolphins def (3) Chiefs by 6 | (6) Dolphins def (3) Chiefs by 1 | (3) Chiefs def (6) Dolphins by 4 | (3) Chiefs def (6) Dolphins by 19 |
| (3) Lions def (6) Rams by 4 | (3) Lions def (6) Rams by 10 | (3) Lions def (6) Rams by 3 | (3) Lions def (6) Rams by 1 |
| (4) Texans def (5) Browns by 1 | (5) Browns def (4) Texans by 7 | (5) Browns def (4) Texans by 2.5 | (4) Texans def (5) Browns by 31 |
| (4) Buccaneers def (5) Eagles by 3 | (4) Buccaneers def (5) Eagles by 10 | (5) Eagles def (4) Buccaneers by 3 | (4) Buccaneers def (5) Eagles by 23 |
| Wild Card Record: 4-2 | Wild Card Record: 3-3 | Wild Card Record: 3-3 | |
| Wild Card ATS: 2-4 | Wild Card ATS: 1-5 | Wild Card ATS: 2-4 | |
| Divisional Round: | Divisional Round: | Divisional Round: | |
| (1) Ravens def | (1) Ravens def | (1) Ravens def (4) Texans by 9.5 | (1) Ravens def (4) Texans by 24 |
| (1) 49ers def (4) Buccaneers* by 12 | (1) 49ers def (4) Buccaneers* by 10 | (1) 49ers def (7) Packers by 10 | (1) 49ers def (7) Packers by 3 |
| (2) Bills def (4) Texans* by 2 | (2) Bills def | (2) Bills def (3) Chiefs by 2.5 | (3) Chiefs def (2) Bills by 3 |
| (3) Lions def | (3) Lions def (4) Buccaneers by 6 | (3) Lions def (4) Buccaneers by 8 | |
| Divisional Record: 2-2 | Divisional Record: 3-1 | Divisional Record: 3-1 | |
| Divisional ATS: 1-2 | Divisional ATS: 2-1 | Divisional ATS: 2-2 | |
| Conference Championship & Super Bowl: | Conference Championship & Super Bowl: | Conference Championship: | |
| (1) Ravens def | (1) Ravens def | (1) Ravens def (3) Chiefs by 3.5 | |
| (1) 49ers def | (1) 49ers def (3) Lions by 3 | (1) 49ers def (3) Lions by 7 | |
| (1) 49ers def (1) Ravens by 2 | (1) Ravens def (1) 49ers by 3 | ||
| Playoffs Record: 6-4 | Playoffs Record: 6-4 | Playoffs Record: 6-4 | |
| Playoffs ATS: 3-6 | Playoffs ATS: 3-6 | Playoffs ATS: 4-6 |
Credits: Pro Football Reference for the schedules.
Plain Text Sports for the scores to create this chart.
Tableizer to create the code for the table.
Lines.com to show the odds. Other sources work and are likely less sketchy of a site.