This is the final update for the 2023-24 NFL season. Overall, none of the three options did significantly better between the favorite, my prediction, and the model predictions. It is interesting that the picks were over 0.500 straight up even without changing the picks from the beginning of the playoffs. However, none of the picks picked the champion Chiefs to win it all. Until next year...
Notes for the table below: ATS on the table below means "against the spread". For Vegas record and against the spread, I will be considering it a win if the favorite wins or clears the spread.
* = A team is playing a different opponent than predicted. This result will be considered a win if the winner of the matchup advances.
Team = The team was knocked out in a prior round. This result will be considered a win if the winner of the matchup advances.
| Model Predictions: | Personal Predictions: | Vegas: | Actual: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild Card: | Wild Card: | Wild Card: | Wild Card: |
| (2) Bills def (7) Steelers by 6 | (2) Bills def (7) Steelers by 7 | (2) Bills def (7) Steelers by 10 | (2) Bills def (7) Steelers by 14 |
| (2) Cowboys def (7) Packers by 9 | (2) Cowboys def (7) Packers by 10 | (2) Cowboys def (7) Packers by 7.5 | (7) Packers def (2) Cowboys by 16 |
| (6) Dolphins def (3) Chiefs by 6 | (6) Dolphins def (3) Chiefs by 1 | (3) Chiefs def (6) Dolphins by 4 | (3) Chiefs def (6) Dolphins by 19 |
| (3) Lions def (6) Rams by 4 | (3) Lions def (6) Rams by 10 | (3) Lions def (6) Rams by 3 | (3) Lions def (6) Rams by 1 |
| (4) Texans def (5) Browns by 1 | (5) Browns def (4) Texans by 7 | (5) Browns def (4) Texans by 2.5 | (4) Texans def (5) Browns by 31 |
| (4) Buccaneers def (5) Eagles by 3 | (4) Buccaneers def (5) Eagles by 10 | (5) Eagles def (4) Buccaneers by 3 | (4) Buccaneers def (5) Eagles by 23 |
| Wild Card Record: 4-2 | Wild Card Record: 3-3 | Wild Card Record: 3-3 | |
| Wild Card ATS: 2-4 | Wild Card ATS: 1-5 | Wild Card ATS: 2-4 | |
| Divisional Round: | Divisional Round: | Divisional Round: | Divisional Rnd.: |
| (1) Ravens def | (1) Ravens def | (1) Ravens def (4) Texans by 9.5 | (1) Ravens def (4) Texans by 24 |
| (1) 49ers def (4) Buccaneers* by 12 | (1) 49ers def (4) Buccaneers* by 10 | (1) 49ers def (7) Packers by 10 | (1) 49ers def (7) Packers by 3 |
| (2) Bills def (4) Texans* by 2 | (2) Bills def | (2) Bills def (3) Chiefs by 2.5 | (3) Chiefs def (2) Bills by 3 |
| (3) Lions def | (3) Lions def (4) Buccaneers by 6 | (3) Lions def (4) Buccaneers by 8 | |
| Divisional Record: 2-2 | Divisional Record: 3-1 | Divisional Record: 3-1 | |
| Divisional ATS: 1-2 | Divisional ATS: 2-1 | Divisional ATS: 2-2 | |
| Conference Championship & Super Bowl: | Conference Championship & Super Bowl: | Conference Championship & Super Bowl: | Conference Championship: |
| (1) Ravens def | (1) Ravens def | (1) Ravens def (3) Chiefs by 3.5 | (3) Chiefs def (1) Ravens by 7 |
| (1) 49ers def | (1) 49ers def (3) Lions by 3 | (1) 49ers def (3) Lions by 7 | (1) 49ers def (3) Lions by 3 |
| (1) 49ers def | (1) 49ers def (3) Chiefs by 2.5 | (3) Chiefs def (1) 49ers by 3 | |
| Playoffs Record: 7-6 | Playoffs Record: 7-6 | Playoffs Record: 7-6 | |
| Playoffs ATS: 5-7 | Playoffs ATS: 4-7 | Playoffs ATS: 4-9 |
Credits: Pro Football Reference for the schedules.
Plain Text Sports for the scores to create this chart.
Tableizer to create the code for the table.
Lines.com to show the odds. Other sources work and are likely less sketchy of a site.